Note on Illusory correlation and Misinformation

📅2024-09-20, 5 minutes

In the current digital age, the rapid spread of misinformation is a cause for concern and offers an intriguing insight into the way we consume and share information. What started as a personal observation soon led me to embark on a journey of discovery, with the aim of gaining a deeper understanding of the underlying forces driving this phenomenon. In particular, I was interested in investigating whether users on these platforms may inadvertently link certain posts or sources with credibility simply because they align with their existing belief systems. As I began to explore the existing literature on this topic, I came across the concept of 'illusory correlation', which seemed to offer a potential explanation. Through a careful review of scientific studies and articles, I found evidence that seemed to support the claim that cognitive biases, amplified by algorithms, may play a role in the spread of misinformation.

graffiti on a wall that says fake

On reflection, I feel that the idea of an illusory correlation may help us to understand why misinformation spreads so quickly on these platforms. This view is supported by several academic works. I am grateful that these studies not only support my original idea but also offer valuable insights that expand on it.

1. In a similar vein, Pennycook and Rand (2021) [1] also make a valuable contribution to this field of study. Their research offers valuable insights that align with my perspective. It highlights how cognitive biases, such as illusory correlations, can influence users' beliefs, particularly when they align with their existing perspectives. They put forth the idea that this cognitive quirk may lead users to overestimate the credibility of content that feels familiar or comfortable, even when it's false. It seems that there is a match between these biases and social media's algorithmic structure, which could explain why misinformation spreads at such a rate.

2. Del Vicario et al. (2016) [2]: This study offers another perspective by highlighting how confirmation bias can contribute to the formation of echo chambers – online communities where users are repeatedly exposed to content that reinforces their existing beliefs. These echo chambers can amplify illusory correlations, making it challenging for users to discern between credible and false information. In these closed-off spaces, even the most unconvincing claims can gain a sense of legitimacy due to constant exposure.

3. In their study, Ciampaglia and Menczer (2018) [3] explored the potential implications of social media algorithms. Their analysis of social media algorithms offers further insight into the issue. It could be said that by curating content that aligns with users' past behaviour, these platforms encourage illusory correlations to persist. It seems that the more users engage with similar content, the more the algorithm may feed them information that reinforces their beliefs, which could potentially make the user vulnerable to misinformation.

I believe this journey began with a feeling that I couldn't quite put into words. I had always noticed how people, myself included, appeared to be drawn to information that seemed to resonate with our worldview, regardless of its veracity. It was only when I looked into it further that I came across a wealth of research that not only shed light on this behaviour but also highlighted some concerning implications. It would be fair to say that we are not just passive consumers of content; we are also actively shaping the very information we consume, often in ways that may not be entirely accurate. Perhaps even more troubling is that platforms are reinforcing these cognitive distortions through algorithmic feedback loops.

References

  • Pennycook, G., & Rand, D. G. (2021). *The psychology of fake news*. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 25(5), 388-402. DOI: 10.1016/j.tics.2021.02.007
  • Del Vicario, M., Bessi, A., Zollo, F., Petroni, F., Scala, A., Caldarelli, G., Stanley, H. E., & Quattrociocchi, W. (2016). *The spreading of misinformation online*. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(3), 554-559. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1517441113
  • Ciampaglia, G. L., & Menczer, F. (2018). *Biases make people vulnerable to misinformation spread by social media*. Scientific American. [Read here]

Image source: @markusspiske hosted on Unsplash.com. Retrieved: 2024-09-19.